Investors seek greater disclosure on how oil and gas companies see the impacts of the energy transition
The energy transition will have profound effects on the fossil-based energy sector driving a shift to lower carbon fuels. Investors want to see more complete and comparable information from oil and gas firms on how they see these changes affecting their markets and how they plan to maintain long term returns.
This is the message from a report published today by Trove Research on behalf of the Swedish National Fund, AP7, analysing the long-term energy scenarios of 14 International Oil Companies (IOCs).
Specifically, the report recommends that IOCs disclose more information on how they see the future of the energy market in three key areas:
- All scenarios are made at least to 2050 – some are currently only made to 2040.
- Projections should include three scenarios:
- Business as Usual – to show how energy and oil demand will change without any further policy interventions or step changes in technology.
- The central scenario the company strategy is based on – this is likely to be the “base case” for business planning purposes, incorporating the company’s central view on oil demand and prices, where this can be disclosed.
- A 1.50C trajectory – this shows the most extreme impact on oil demand.
- IOCs should provide disclosures against 12 key metrics – covering energy demand, renewable energy deployment, the costs of clean energy technologies and impacts on emissions
These recommendations are based on extensive analysis of oil and gas company scenarios which finds:
- Climate leading firms (eg BP, Shell and Total) publish more complete scenarios. This reveals their thinking about how the energy transition will affect core oil and gas markets. Climate laggards are more tight-lipped (eg Suncor, Rosneft, Lukoil, Petrobras and Petrochina have not publish scenarios to date) – for these companies, investors are left to draw their own conclusions about how deeply management have thought about the long-term implications of the energy transition.
- IOC climate laggards do not look as far into the future at the climate leaders – projections can end in 2040 rather than 2050 – and compliance with the Paris Agreement can be interpreted as a 20C warming goal, rather than 1.50C goal. Both these factors can have material outcomes for projecting global oil demand in the medium-term (up to 2040).
- Climate leading IOCs adopt more rapid energy transition strategies because of their view of risks to the oil market, not because they have significantly different cost bases. Climate leading IOCs have marginally higher extraction costs than the laggards, but not sufficiently high to explain their greater pivot to low carbon energy technologies.
- IOCs differ significantly in their compliance with the recommendations of the Taskforce on Climate Related Disclosures (TCFD)1. Climate leaders are generally compliant with TCFD disclosure recommendations (BP, Shell, Repsol, Total), whilst tail-enders are least compliant (eg Marathon, Occidental, Suncor, Rosneft, Lukoil, Petrobras).
Richard Gröttheim, CEO of AP7 said
“Oil and gas companies are at the center of the energy transition. Active participation from these firms will be crucial in accelerating this process, while passive resistance is a real problem. Alongside like-minded investors, we want to see oil and gas firms move to lower carbon business models to provide sustainable returns in the long term. This report on scenarios provides a valuable basis for oil and gas firms to share with investors their plans for managing this transition”.
Guy Turner, CEO of Trove Research said,
“We are delighted to publish this comprehensive analysis of the climate strategies of 14 major oil and gas companies. The report exposes the wide-ranging perspectives that companies take on examining how the energy transition will affect their core markets. Some offer a complete picture, while others are near-silent. This is crucial information for investors, who need to know how prepared companies are to tackle the challenges posed by climate change and the shift to low carbon sources of energy.”
AP7 (the Seventh Swedish National Pension Fund) is the default alternative within the Swedish Premium Pension system with five million savers and 750 billion SEK AUM in global equities and fixed income. With a diversified equity portfolio of more than 3000 companies, AP7 has an ESG-strategy that focus on active universal ownership.
About Trove Research
Trove Research is a specialist data, analysis and advisory firm focused on climate policy, carbon markets and the energy transition. The firm’s expertise builds on 30 years’ experience across research, consulting, strategy and industry M&A. We combine deep sector knowledge with leading edge analytical and forecasting tools to provide clarity and insight.
For more information see:
Notes to Editors
For more information or to speak to the researchers involved, please contact:
Guy Turner, CEO Trove Research T: +44 7801 140696 E: firstname.lastname@example.org
“Energy Market Scenarios of oil and gas companies – An analysis of the climate strategies and long term scenarios of 14 intentional oil and gas companies. Non-technical Summary”.
“Energy Market Scenarios of oil and gas companies – An analysis of the climate strategies and long term scenarios of 14 intentional oil and gas companies. Main report”.
Johan Floren, Head of Communications and ESG, AP7
T: +46 (0)70-555 80 58